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This week we’re looking at a statistic by FiveThirtyEight called CARMELO. This stat is a fun projection system used to predict a player’s career arc developed by Nate Silver. I didn’t do a deep dive article into how the stat is calculated since not all of the information is available, but I still took a look at everything that goes into coming up with the projections. 


CARMELO ratings:

Historical Elo ratings:

Article on initial CARMELO ratings:






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